Is The Proposed Russian Deal On Syrian Chemical Weapons A Trap For Israel?
Ace wonders whether the John Kerry slip about trading Assad’s chemical weapons to avoid an attack was that or a pre-planned deal. It’s hard to say because Kerry is just so gaffe prone. Either way, it could be a clever trap laid by Obama and Putin.
Follow along with this scenario….
Assad trades his weapons to avoid an attack. Immediately calls begin to capitalize on this historic moment and make the Mideast a Chemical Weapons Free Zone (they can even make up little signs like they do for Gun Free Zones). This would of course mean that Israel would be pressed to give up chemical weapons it may or may not have (of course they do or they could create them in 20 minutes).
Of course Obama, who has a nuclear disarmament fetish, might then up the ante, “Hey, while we’re getting rid of chemical weapons in the Mideast, let’s go all the way and strike a “grand bargain” to get rid of nuclear weapons too”. The deal would be Israel would turnover their undeclared stockpile of nuclear weapons in exchange for an end to Iran’s nuclear program. In exchange, the US would commit to including Israel under a nuclear umbrella like it does with Japan, German and other non-nuclear allies.
That would be…interesting.
Kerry would love it because it’s the kind of a legacy building liberal internationalist would love. Chuck Hagel would love it because he’s a longtime advocate for global nuclear disarmament.
Would it work? Of course not but it would do a number of things.
It would buy Iran more time to develop their nuclear program while they “studied” and “negotiated” this “very interesting and welcome proposal to bring peace and stability to the region”.
It would also have the benefit (from the Russian, Iranian and Obama sides) of making the Israelis the bad guys in America. There’s no way they go for this deal but suddenly they would be the ones standing in the way of “peace in our time” and it would be harder to rally public support in the US for an attack when there’s the chance it could be worked out peacefully.
Am I saying this will happen? No.
Am I saying it could happen? Yeah, I think it could. It even might.