Is Romney Competitive In Minnesota And New Mexico?
If these polls are close to right, it’s all coming unglued for Obama.
<blockquote>The president now leads Romney 46 to 40 percent, with Obama’s advantage coming primarily through a 2-1 edge among moderate voters and a 14-point lead among women, according to the poll released Monday by SurveyUSA. But a May version of the same poll gave the president a 14-point lead, showing Romney whittling away at Obama’s lead.
It’s a pattern similar to states like Wisconsin, where Obama’s one-time double-digit lead has steadily decreased since Romney clinched the nomination, and Michigan, where the occasional poll has even found Romney leading. While the president is still the clear favorite in all three states, the Romney campaign is hoping to force the incumbent president to spend resources in the Upper Midwest playing defense.</blockquote>
I don’t know how likely it is the crazy Scandis in Minnesota will go for Mitt but they don’t have to to make this interesting. Minnesota just being in play mean Wisconsin and maybe Michigan, states fare more friendly to Romney, are likely to go to him.
Second look at Tim Pawlenty for VP?
From last week an interesting poll…New Mexico might be in play because of Gary Johnson.
<blockquote>While President Obama has held a double digit lead in most New Mexico polls to date, the latest Public Policy Polling automated survey reports that Mitt Romney has closed to within 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent.
But that’s when just Obama and Romney are tested. When the Democratic polling firm places Johnson in the mix, Obama’s lead shrinks to 42-38, with Johnson drawing 13 percent.
The crosstabs show Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee, takes a bite out of Romney’s hide in a three-way matchup, but also does damage to Obama as well because he picks up 24 percent of the independent/other vote.</blockquote>
Third party candidates tend to poll better than they do with actual voters and normally I’d discount this but….Johnson is a popular ex-Governor. Again, he doesn’t have to pull enough to give Mitt the win but Obama can’t play defense everywhere. Also, if Obama isn’t popular enough in a state <a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Mexico,_2008″>he won by 15% in 2008</a> to withstand a minor party candidate (even one with strong local ties), what’s that say about neighboring Colorado? I was talking to a political type from there and he says the state is in play. I’m not so sure given the recent trends but right now Obama is on the defense everywhere.
This could get ugly for him (and beautiful for Romney).
Related: If you’re interested in keeping track of the electoral college race…there’s an ap for that!
It’s something my business partner put together and it allows you to make your predictions for the race and post them to faceebook and Twitter. You can make multiple predictions as the race changes and the country becomes a sea of red.
You can get <a href=”https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.predictor”>the Android version here.</a> iPhone and iPad versions are coming soon.